The NFL’s next big media rights revenue is years away and will depend on industry changes

In 2021, the National Football League signed an 11-year, $111 billion deal media rights agreementIn July, the National Basketball Association signed an 11-year, $77 billion deal own agreement.

What’s next? Not much is going to happen anytime soon.

While the Ultimate Fighting Championship and Formula One’s deals expire in 2025, the vast majority of major college and professional sports recently signed long-term media rights deals with U.S. television networks and broadcasters.

Welcome to the sports media rights recession. Or the calm before the storm.

The NFL has the right to opt out of its current agreement with all media partners — except: DisneyIt has a slightly different deal structure after the 2028-29 season. By then, the entire landscape, driven by the pace of change among the biggest media companies, could be dramatically different than it is today, dramatically changing how much revenue the leagues make and who pays.

“Anyone who tells you with certainty that the NFL is going to fold or not fold is crazy,” said Daniel Cohen, vice president of global media rights consulting at Octagon. “There’s a lot of things you can’t predict two years from now, let alone six years from now.”

The NFL’s decision to opt out, though years away, is the next potential tectonic shift that will affect the balance of power in media. It’s possible the NFL could choose to end deals with the following companies, longtime Sunday afternoon media providers: Fox And Paramount Global’s CBS is in favor of broadcasters, for example Apple, Amazon, Google’s YouTube or even Netflix.

It will also be a major driver of future NFL team valuations. CNBC will release the Official 2024 NFL Team Valuations list, which ranks all 32 professional franchises, on Thursday.

Transformation of media

Considering the current state of the media, Paramount Global Accept the merger With Skydance Media by mid-2025 Warner Bros. Discovery We are actively looking for partners to create scale and share the cost of content Netflix jump into live sports Buying NFL games on Christmas DayIn four to five years, potential bidders for games could be significantly different from today. That will determine how much of an increase the NFL can get in its next rights deal.

“There will probably be companies that don’t exist today that will merge to create new competitive bidders,” said former CBS Sports President Neal Pilson, who founded sports media consulting firm Pilson Communications. “Other deals like the NBA are a data point, but the NFL is its own market. The scheduling is honey. Everything is driven by the popularity of the NFL.”

Another determinant of how much sports media rights deals will grow in the future will be the state of the dwindling pay-TV bundle. According to a recent report from MoffettNathanson, there has been a loss of 4 million pay-TV customers so far this year, “a staggering total in just six months.”

Live sports has long been the glue that holds this together, and the vast majority of viewers still come from traditional TV, not including streaming.

The economics of the package — still a cash cow for content providers like Disney and YouTube Comcast’s NBCUniversal — has driven rights growth for decades. Meanwhile, streaming has yet to generate profits for most media companies.

Traditionally, the reach of broadcast networks, especially in rural areas that still lack consistent high-speed internet, has made the NFL a valuable asset to Fox, Disney, NBCUniversal, and CBS, all of which own broadcast networks. Most NFL games are broadcast on national broadcasters.

The NBA also changed its partnership Warner Bros. DiscoveryWith NBCUniversal, which has no broadcast network.

But four years from now, the continued drive toward streaming, combined with the deeper pockets of Big Tech companies, could lead the NFL to view broadcasting as anachronistic rather than necessary.

On the other hand, if broadcasters become the sole distributors of sports broadcasts, they will have all the market power, which could negatively impact valuations.

“If you put all your money in the broadcasting parties’ baskets and traditional media is so disrupted that they can no longer pay for media rights, then you’ve given the broadcasters too much market power,” said Shirin Malkani, co-chair of the sports industry group at Perkins Coie.

Rights locked

Bank of America recently compiled a table of recent media rights deals and their estimated value. Some of the numbers differ slightly from the reported figures.

National Hockey League’s media partnership deal continues During the 2027-28 season.

Major League Baseball’s deal Up in 2028 — and will likely be shaped more by the expiration of the players’ collective bargaining agreement in 2026 than by the state of the media industry. Still, the traditional TV landscape, as well as the vastly changing regional sports sector, could make MLB a litmus test for any rights deals that follow.

PGA Tour’s media agreement It will continue until 2030. NBCUniversal has the Winter Olympics through 2030 and the Summer Olympics through 2032. NASCAR signed a contract Late last year, media carriers locked in the ESPN College Football Playoffs through 2031 Until 2031Apple signs deal for Major League Soccer Until 2032.

The long-term nature of these deals has added some certainty to the existing media ecosystem, an advantage for leagues, media companies and pay-TV providers who rely on consistent cash flow.

“My advice to clients is, if you’re in a deal that looks fair right now or is analytically fair to good, don’t look for something great,” said Octagon’s Cohen, who represents several professional sports leagues in media deals. “Things are going to continue to evolve over the next six years, so it’s best to hold on to a good deal.”

Disclosure: Comcast’s NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC.

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