Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts wet, mild winter, but meteorologists question forecast – Chico Enterprise-Record

The northern state is expecting a wet, mild winter, if the Old Farmer’s Calendar forecast is correct.

But meteorologist Jan Null said the reality of predicting the coming winter weather was “complex” and that, according to his comparisons, the Almanac was only about a third to a half accurate.

“Whatever they’re using, it’s not verifiable,” Null said.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which has been predicting U.S. weather since 1794, predicted in a press release that the weather will be mild across the country next winter.

According to the calendar’s weather report, winter will be “warmer than normal” across much of California, with the coldest temperatures occurring between mid-December and mid-to-late January.

The calendar reports that these mild temperatures will be offset by a spell of rain and snowfall higher up in the mountains. The stormiest times of the season will be in mid-December, early January and mid-to-late February.

The calendar claims an 80% success rate in predicting the season’s weather. According to the press release, the forecasts are based on historical comparisons of helioscience, climatology and meteorology to present-day conditions to predict weather trends and events. Over the years, the forecasts have incorporated the use of modern technology into the appropriate strategies that have been used since the first issue was published in the 18th century.

“It’s no better than flipping a coin,” Null said, adding that he went back through the years and compared actual weather patterns with calendar predictions.

National Weather Service meteorologist Crystal Oudit said the winter forecast supports the La Nina pattern, which signals colder, wetter weather.

Seasonal weather forecasts become more accurate as the season approaches, Oudit said, adding, “We will have higher confidence earlier.”

Null added that agencies like the NWS Climate Prediction Center produce more accurate seasonal forecasts, but “don’t have the greatest precision” in predicting long-term weather patterns.

Other factors, such as climate change, are making seasonal weather increasingly difficult to predict, he said. Averages from 20 or 30 years ago are different from today’s averages, and there can be a “butterfly effect” in the weather because of global variables.

“There are so many elements,” Null said. “It’s complicated.”

Oudit added that cooler temperatures in Northern California will be seen in late September or early October.

“We’re still in fire season, we still have fire concerns,” he said.